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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.06 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -2.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 30, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.60 EP