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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 81

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to SEA 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 18-F.Swain pushed ob at SEA 38 for 9 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.96 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 81, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP