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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(3:36) (No Huddle) 2-C.Wentz FUMBLES (Aborted) at SEA 31, RECOVERED by SEA-2-D.Reed at SEA 31.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.05 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 31, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model