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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to IND 14, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.59 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 50, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP