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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 18

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(10:00) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz sacked at SEA 27 for -9 yards (52-D.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.80 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model