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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 45

Seattle Seahawks 28 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to IND 10, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-26-R.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.43 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP