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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 3

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 3-R.Blankenship 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +3.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.42 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 3, worth +0.62 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP