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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 79

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to SEA 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 18-F.Swain pushed ob at SEA 39 for 6 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 79, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model