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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 22

San Francisco 49ers 28 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(:08) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.02 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model