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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 47

Detroit Lions 10 – San Francisco 49ers 31

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to SF 9, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 6-M.Sanu.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.89 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model