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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 55

San Francisco 49ers 38 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(:41) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to DET 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.16 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP