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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 34

San Francisco 49ers 38 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 9-R.Gould 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.98 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model