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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 33

Detroit Lions 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 4-A.Seibert 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.23 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model