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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 17

Detroit Lions 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 6-T.Williams to SF 10 for 7 yards (2-J.Verrett).

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.98 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model