4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 24

Detroit Lions 14 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(:07) 4-A.Seibert 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.77 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model