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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 25
Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 21
What Actually Happened
(5:57) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 87-Q.Cephus.
The Three Options
GO
+2.58 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.20 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.25 EP
KICK
+1.14 EP
- 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
- 16% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT
-0.35 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
