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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 32

Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 35

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.Benson (21-E.Stokes).

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.26 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model