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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 85

Green Bay Packers 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to DET 39, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.40 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 85, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 43, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model