4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 71

Houston Texans 14 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(13:52) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to CLE 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-D.Felton to CLE 28 for 7 yards (43-N.Hewitt; 48-J.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP