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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 12

Cleveland Browns 21 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 3-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.49 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP