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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 55

Cleveland Browns 31 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 7-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to HOU 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.57 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP