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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 49

Houston Texans 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(14:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.73 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP