Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 61

New England Patriots 10 – New York Jets 3

(4:09) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NYJ 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.51 EP
65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model