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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 31

New England Patriots 10 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:17) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.36 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model