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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 14

New England Patriots 19 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 14, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 24, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model