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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 40

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 7-J.Bailey punts 32 yards to NYJ 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.15 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model