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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 52

New England Patriots 22 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 7-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to NYJ 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.75 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model