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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 17

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 22

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 6-M.Ammendola 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.15 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model