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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 28

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.94 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model