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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 48

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to TEN 8, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.82 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP