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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 16 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(:01) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.43 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model