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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 29

Tennessee Titans 23 – Seattle Seahawks 30

What Actually Happened

(5:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Hudson [51-K.Hyder].

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.16 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model