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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 15

Tennessee Titans 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 14-R.Bullock 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.42 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model