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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 68

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 14-A.Lee punts 47 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.69 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 68, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 26, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP