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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to ARI 23, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.64 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP