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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to ARI 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.74 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model