4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.11 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP