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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 14-A.Lee punts 59 yards to JAX 23, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-28-C.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.35 EP
  • 23% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 82, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 40, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP