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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to ARI 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 4-R.Moore pushed ob at ARI 44 for 27 yards (9-L.Cooke).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.92 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 30, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model