Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 31 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

(2:18) 14-A.Lee punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.74 EP
66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -2.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model