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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 50

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – Arizona Cardinals 31

What Actually Happened

(:49) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 17-D.Chark to ARI 25 for 25 yards (34-J.Thompson) [44-M.Golden].

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.33 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 50, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model