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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to ARI 1, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-5-R.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.60 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model