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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 95

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 14-A.Lee punts 45 yards to 50, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.18 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 95, worth -5.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -3.15 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 53, worth -3.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model