Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 93

Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to BAL 36, Center-47-S.Daly. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 49 for 13 yards (45-J.Cabinda). PENALTY on DET, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 49.

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.92 EP
62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 93, worth -5.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model