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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 21

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.80 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 31, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model