4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 52

Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to BAL 4, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-18-K.Hodge.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.53 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 52, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model