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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(:34) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to DET 9, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.49 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.27 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP