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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 91

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to DET 37, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-K.Raymond to DET 48 for 11 yards (40-M.Harrison).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth -0.12 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 91, worth -5.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -3.07 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 48, worth -3.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP