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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 14

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(:46) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.36 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP