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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 17

Detroit Lions 14 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 5-R.Santoso 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.54 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 17, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model